LSAT 77, Logical Reasoning I, Q4, LSATHacks

LR Question 4 Explanation, by LSATHacks

QUESTION TEXT: The northern cardinal, a nonmigratory songbird…

QUESTION TYPE: Weaken

CONCLUSION: Warmer winters probably caused the increase in Nova Scotia’s northern cardinal.

REASONING: The northern cardinal’s range didn’t extend to Nova Scotia – they used to be rare in that province. Now they are common in Nova Scotia, and winters are warmer.

ANALYSIS: This argument has merely established a correlation between warmer temperatures and songbird populations. Whenever there is a correlation, there are four possibilities:

1. Warmer temperatures caused more songbirds.
2. More songbirds caused warmer temperatures. (unlikely!)
3. Some third factor caused both warmer temperatures and songbirds.
4. It’s a coincidence. Another factor caused the increase in songbirds.

The argument is arguing #1. To weaken the argument, point out one of the alternatives. Numbers 2 and 3 are very unlikely in this case, so the answer will probably just give another reason the  northern cardinal became common (#4).

___________

1. CORRECT. This shows that northern cardinals have more food during Nova Scotia’s winters.
   (A wintering bird is a bird that stays in a place for the winter. Such as Northern Cardinals.)
2. This has always been true. We need a change in a factor in order to explain the change in northern cardinal populations.
3. This might indicate that there was a common cause to the population increase. But the common cause could be a warmer winter! This doesn’t weaken the argument.
4. Why would we care about such a comparison? This type of answer is almost never right. Also, this answer just tells us about the overall category “nonmigratory birds”. It doesn’t necessarily tell us about Northern Cardinals.
5. This tells us nothing. Despite the increase in predators, we know that the Northern Cardinal population did increase.

Hi, I'm Graeme Blake

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