LSAT 1 | Section 3 | Logical Reasoning: Q4

LR Question 4 Explanation

QUESTION TEXT: The theory of military deterrence was based on …

QUESTION TYPE: Must Be True

CONCLUSION: To maintain military deterrence, a nation must be believed to have overwhelming retaliatory power.

REASONING: Fear of retaliation causes hesitation and often prevents aggression. Therefore, for deterrence to work, an aggressor must believe it cannot defend against retaliation.

ANALYSIS: The stimulus outlines the psychological logic behind military deterrence. Imagine two countries: Country A considers attacking Country B. However, Country A believes that Country B possesses retaliatory power so overwhelming that A could not defend itself. This fear causes A to hesitate or abandon the attack entirely. This belief is what makes deterrence effective.

The argument presents a necessary condition for deterrence. In order for deterrence to work, a potential aggressor must believe that retaliation would be too devastating to withstand. In other words:

If deterrence -> belief in overwhelming retaliation

Note that it doesn’t claim belief is sufficient to produce deterrence (i.e. that if you believe this, you will ALWAYS be deterred).

___________

1. “Certain knowledge” goes beyond what the stimulus requires, which only refers to a belief that retaliation would be overwhelming. This condition is too strict.
2. This choice focuses on Country A’s belief about its own retaliatory power, which the stimulus never mentions. The argument is only about fear of the other nation’s retaliation. Plus, believing you’re stronger probably wouldn’t deter you – if anything, it might make you more likely to attack.
3. This treats a necessary condition for deterrence as a sufficient condition. The stimulus says that belief is required for deterrence, but that doesn’t mean every case of not attacking was caused by that belief. There could be many other reasons for restraint.
4. CORRECT. The argument says deterrence depends on belief in overwhelming retaliation. So if a nation wants to deter attacks and has massive power, it would be smart to make that power known. Otherwise, how would other nations believe in their power if they didn’t even know about it?
5. This condition is also too strict. The stimulus doesn’t say that deterrence depends on actually having the greatest retaliatory force overall. It only says that a nation must be believed to have enough retaliatory power to beat the aggressor.