QUESTION TEXT: Viewers surveyed immediately after the televised political…
QUESTION TYPE: Weaken
CONCLUSION: The respondents may have been biased in favor of Lopez.
REASONING: Most people who watched the debate said that Lopez argued better. Lopez eventually won.
ANALYSIS: First, you must understand what the argument is saying. Suppose that Lopez won the election with 60% of the votes.
In that case, it’s likely that most debate viewers already liked Lopez. If 60% of people watching the debate liked Lopez, then it’s hardly surprising if most people said that he won.
And that’s the basis of the right answer. If we know instead that most of the audience did not support Lopez, then that means he must have convinced some people during the debate.
- The question is talking about those who did watch the debate. We need to know how many of them supported Lopez. It’s possible very few people watched the debate, maybe only 20%. That would mean that most supported of both candidates didn’t watch. This answer tells us nothing.
- This just adds confusion. If most members of the live audience liked Tanner, why did Lopez do better on television? This has no clear impact on the argument.
- This is very, very tempting. But let’s play with the numbers. Let’s say only 15% of people voted for Tanner, and 20% of those watching the debate voted for Tanner. That means that those who watched the debate were more likely than the general public to vote for Tanner. Yet most of the audience would vote for Lopez.
- CORRECT. This shows that a majority of the audience was against Lopez, pre-debate. But after the debate, most said that Lopez won. That’s evidence that Lopez was a good debater.
- So what? Suppose Lopez won with 51% of votes, and 51% of those who saw the debate supported Lopez. That’s still a bias in favor of Lopez.
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