QUESTION TYPE: Flawed Reasoning
CONCLUSION: The new efforts won’t succeed.
REASONING: Past efforts to stop on-campus alcohol drinking failed.
ANALYSIS: This is a very bad argument. We don’t know whether the past efforts to stop drinking were good efforts. It’s no surprise if bad efforts fail. Whereas the new penalties might be harsh enough to actually stop the drinking.
The past efforts could have been “please students, don’t drink”. And the current effort could be “If we catch you drinking, you’re expelled”. The latter method is cruel, but may be successful where half hearted efforts weren’t.
___________
- This doesn’t tie into it. The reasoning was based entirely on the failure of past efforts. This answer might have been correct had it said “failed to specify the expected effectiveness of the new penalties”. We care about whether penalties will work, not what they are.
- The author didn’t overlook this. It’s a reasonable assumption that fewer than 100% of students drink, penalties or no penalties. LSAT authors don’t have to list every reasonable assumption they make; there’s no space.
- The university doesn’t care whether on-campus housing is the favorite place to drink. They only care that drinking does happen there.
- CORRECT. If this is true, then past failures may not predict future success. For example, if anyone caught drinking on campus was instantly expelled, the policy would probably reduce drinking. (And if snitching guaranteed an A, etc.)
These policies wouldn’t be a good idea, but they would almost certainly work better than past policies which failed. - This is never necessary. Can you imagine making this objection in real life? “So, I’m going to go to this restaurant because the food is healthy”
Reply: “You fool! You didn’t mention the food is also tasty!”. It’s not a flaw to not mention every possible positive effect.
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