LSAT 158 | Section 4 | Logical Reasoning: Q8

LR Question 8 Explanation

QUESTION TEXT: Climatologist: The waters off the Pacific coast of North America…

QUESTION TYPE: Main Conclusion

CONCLUSION: It may not be correct to say that global warming has warmed the pacific coast.

REASONING: There are natural cycles that warm ocean temperatures. Some can last 60 years or more. So a natural cycle could have caused the warming.

ANALYSIS: To do well on the LSAT, you need to master the difference between “Is not necessarily true” and “false”. There are three possible conclusions we could make in this situation:

1. Global warming caused the warming
2. Natural cycles caused the warming
3. We don’t know yet. Either is possible.

The argument’s conclusion is number 3. They are not saying natural cycles are the cause. Rather, they are saying that because natural cycles are a possibility, it is too soon to conclude that global warming is the main cause.

___________

1. This answer mixes up the first two sentences. It wasn’t “some scientists” who found that waters warmed. Rather, because the Pacific warmed, “some scientists” think global warming is the cause.
2. This answer choice has a great degree of certainty and thus is too strong. The stimulus only says the warming water as a general trend “is far from justified”. B says that it definitively is “not”.
3. CORRECT. This sums up the stimulus’ conclusion properly. The opposing conclusion could be true, but is far from justified.
4. This is the argument’s reasoning, which supports its conclusion. This isn’t the conclusion itself.
    
   The argument is that because a natural cycle may be the cause, it is far from justified to believe that global warming is the definite cause.
5. This answer choice introduces a conditional logic relationship (“if…then”) that isn’t found in the original stimulus. Logically speaking, it’s possible that both global warming and local cycles contribute to Pacific Ocean warming.

Recap: The question begins with “Climatologist: The waters off the Pacific coast of North America”. It is a Identify The Conclusion question. Learn more about LSAT Identify questions in our guide to LSAT Logical Reasoning question types.