LSAT 128 | Section 2 | Logical Reasoning: Q19

LR Question 19 Explanation

QUESTION TEXT: Criminologist: According to a countrywide tabulation of all …

QUESTION TYPE: Paradox

PARADOX: Police reports show that the crime rate has risen substantially over the last 20 years, but independent surveys of citizens suggest a decrease.

ANALYSIS: The paradox is that police data shows an increase in crime rate, while respondents believe that total crime has decreased.

Note the switch between crime rate and total crime. The crime rate only accounts for the reported crimes. So what if more crimes are being reported now than before? Let’s use an example:

20 years ago:

• Total crimes: 5,000
• Population: 100,000
• Crimes reported to police: 1,000 (only 20% reported)
• Actual crime rate: 5%
• Police’s crime rate: 1%

Today:

• Total crimes: 4,000 (crime has actually gone down)
• Population: 100,000
• Crimes reported to police: 3,000 (now 75% are reported)
• Actual crime rate: 4%
• Police’s crime rate: 3%

Even though the actual number of crimes has decreased, the number of crimes reported to police has increased. This could make it seem like crime is worse, even though fewer crimes are actually being committed. This allows both data points to be true.

___________

1. This offers a possible reason for why people might wrongly believe crime is decreasing, but it assumes that people judge crime levels only based on their personal victimization. In reality, perceptions of crime are also shaped by news, community discussions, general social awareness, etc.
2. If most crimes have always gone unreported, that wouldn’t explain why the reported crime rate is increasing while people perceive a total decrease in crime.
3. Disproving this is somewhat mathematical. If the total number of crimes has fallen but the population has grown, the crime rate per 100K would actually decrease, not increase. This contradicts the police data.
4. Being imprecise or inaccurate in describing crimes doesn’t affect that the independent surveys showed a trend of decreasing crimes.
5. CORRECT. This is exactly the scenario described above. More crimes are being reported now, thus meaning a higher crime rate (i.e. % of reported crimes per 100,000) than before. But just because more crimes are being reported, doesn’t actually mean more crimes are occurring.