LSAT 156 | Section 2 | Logical Reasoning: Q9

LR Question 9 Explanation

QUESTION TEXT: Editorialist: Evidence shows that restrictions on tobacco advertising …

QUESTION TYPE: Flawed Reasoning

CONCLUSION: Restrictions on tobacco ads caused the decline in adult smoking.

REASONING: Significant restrictions came 10 years ago, and since then there’s been a big drop in adult smoking rates.

ANALYSIS: This is a causal argument. It’s saying that because smoking went down around the same time that the restrictions were introduced, the restrictions must be the cause.

But the evidence only supports correlation. Just because two things happen at the same time doesn’t mean one caused the other.

If you haven’t trained yourself to recognize causation vs. correlation flaws, you should. For example, data suggests ice cream consumption famously rises before shark attacks, but that does not mean ice cream causes shark attacks.

___________

1. The argument is about adults, not teenagers. This is irrelevant.
2. Percentages can still represent trends across the group.
3. The data is directly about the relevant time period.
4. Other products don’t matter, we’re only focused on tobacco and smoking.
5. CORRECT. There could be other possible causes of the decline. Maybe public health campaigns, higher taxes, or changing social attitudes.