QUESTION TEXT: There are rumors that the Premier will…
QUESTION TYPE: Principle
CONCLUSION: It’s likely the cabinet won’t be reshuffled.
REASONING: There were meetings before every other reshuffle. There haven’t been any meetings presently.
ANALYSIS: These answer choices are all quite complex. Read them slowly and try to understand what they say.
If something does not “obtain” that means it didn’t happen. That’s in the correct answer, B, which is worded very densely.
___________
- This is way off track. The conclusion talks about likelihood, but the premises are certain (all past reshuffles were preceded by meetings.)
- CORRECT. We would expect a reshuffle to be preceded by meetings. There were no meetings, so that undermines the idea that there will be a reshuffle.
- This hypothesis is not supported by the available data: there have been no meetings.
- This would be a principle that argues in favor of the idea that there will be a reshuffle. It might happen, even if there were no meetings. The phenomenon (a reshuffle) might recur even under different circumstances.
- This is something different. An example would be if I claimed that the sky is either green or red. Those are inconsistent statements because the sky can’t be both green and red. You point out the sky is not green. That certainly doesn’t prove the sky is red.
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