LSAT 132 | Section 4 | Logical Reasoning: Q21

LR Question 21 Explanation

QUESTION TEXT: It is virtually certain that the government contract…

QUESTION TYPE: Method of Reasoning

CONCLUSION: Phoenix will almost certainly get the contract.

REASONING: The contract will almost certainly go to Phoenix or Cartwright. But Cartwright won’t get it.

ANALYSIS: This is a fairly good argument. It shows that one of two possibilities will probably happen, then it eliminates one possibility.

The main difficulty on these questions is understanding what the heck the answers mean. Rather than “explain” why the answers are wrong, I’ve given an example of what each one would look like. The “reason” they’re wrong is that they didn’t happen in the stimulus.

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1. CORRECT. This is exactly what the argument does. The argument ruled out Cartwright, and Phoenix is the only plausible alternative.
2. This is a different situation.
   Example of answer: Bob and Suzy are applying to law school. I heard that Bob will definitely get in. So Suzy won’t get in.
3. This is a different situation.
   Example of answer: You say that Smith will definitely be elected president. But it’s possible he will be struck by lightning. So it’s not inevitable.
4. This is a different situation.
   Example of answer: Phoenix and Cartwright have always gotten the contract in the past. So one of them will probably get the next contract.
5. This is a different situation.
   Example of answer: 42% of men will die of lung cancer. So you, John, have a 42% chance of dying of lung cancer even though you don’t smoke.

Recap: The question begins with “It is virtually certain that the government”. It is a Method of Reasoning question. To practice more Method of Reasoning questions, have a look at the LSAT Questions by Type page.