LSAT 135 | Section 4 | Logical Reasoning: Q14

LR Question 14 Explanation

QUESTION TEXT: Geographer: Because tropical storms require heat and…

QUESTION TYPE: Identify The Conclusion

CONCLUSION: The prediction is wrong. Global warming probably won’t cause more storms.

REASONING: Unstable wind and other factors will work against global warming’s impact on storms.

ANALYSIS: This argument has several structural words: ‘because’, ‘for this reason’, and ‘but’.

In the first sentence ,‘because’ introduces evidence. This evidence supports the second sentence.

The second sentence introduces a viewpoint. ‘For this reason’ shows that the first sentence is the evidence for this viewpoint.

The third sentence says ‘but’. The word ‘but’ is very important on the LSAT. It usually introduces the author’s opinion, which tends to be the conclusion.

In this case, the word ‘but’ shows that the author disagrees with the researchers. The final sentence supports the author’s claim.

You can figure out which of two statements is the conclusion by asking which one supports the other. The claim about the prediction doesn’t support the final sentence. But the final sentence gives a reason why the claim about the prediction is probably true.

___________

1. This is just a fact that explains why global warming might cause more tropical storms.
2. This definitely isn’t the conclusion. It wasn’t even in the argument. No ‘earlier discussions’ said that only global warming affects tropical storms. 
3. Same as B. This wasn’t even in the argument. True, some scientists said that global warming would increase storms. But reversal of a cause doesn’t always lead to the opposite effect.
4. This is evidence for the conclusion: because of these other factors, the prediction is likely false.
5. CORRECT. The word ‘but’ shows that this is the conclusion. The final sentence supports it by giving a reason that global warming probably won’t lead to more storms.