LSAT 78, Logical Reasoning II, Q1

QUESTION TEXT: A nonprofit organization concerned with a social…

QUESTION TYPE: Flawed Reasoning

CONCLUSION: Most of the 5000 people who received a survey supported the organization’s position.

REASONING: Most of the 300 people who replied supported the organization’s position.

ANALYSIS: This argument ignores possible bias in the sample. When you receive a survey, you don’t need to answer. Presumably, those that answer tend to already like the organization sending the survey.

It’s possible that most of the 4700 people who ignored the survey disliked the nonprofit’s positions.

___________

1. CORRECT. See the analysis above. The crucial difference is that the group of people who sent back the survey cared enough to respond. That makes them statistically different from those who didn’t bother replying.
2. This is irrelevant. The conclusion says that the people “agreed” with the position. That means they agreed with it, at that moment in time.
   This answer might be a better contender if the conclusion had said “agree”, present tense.
3. This is a different flaw.
   Example of flaw: We conducted a survey where we promised $100 to anyone who said they liked us. 100% of people said they liked us, so we must be very popular.
4. This is a different flaw.
   Example of flaw: Most Americans dislike the president. So the president’s family must also dislike the president.
5. The argument didn’t say whether the letter had an impact. In any case, it wouldn’t matter. The argument is about what people think, not why they think it. It wouldn’t matter if the letter had influenced them.

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