QUESTION TEXT: Katelin says that we will be hit…
QUESTION TYPE: Flawed Parallel Reasoning
CONCLUSION: Katelin probably thinks the antique car show will be cancelled.
REASONING: Katelin thinks there will be a major snowstorm, and the car show will be cancelled if there is a major snowstorm.
ANALYSIS: In the abstract, this argument is saying:
1. [Person] thinks X is true.
2. If X is true, Y is true.
3. Therefore, [Person] probably believes Y is true.
The flaw here is that we don’t know if Katelin is even aware of the car show, let alone that it will be cancelled if there is a major snowstorm. We’ll look for an answer that follows the structure above and shares the same flaw.
___________
- This answer messes with the structure too much. There isn’t really a conditional statement! Jorge says Y will happen, based on X. X is unlikely to change, so Jorge probably thinks Y will happen. See the difference?
- CORRECT. This answer matches our structure perfectly. Bo makes a statement and the author infers what Bo might believe based on the potentially incorrect assumption that Bo has the same knowledge as the author.
- This answer follows a different structure and doesn’t make the same flaw. Wanda says X. Most people who say X believe Y. Therefore, Wanda probably believes Y.
- This answer doesn’t match our structure. The conditional statement is important: the author has to say that if X is true, Y is true. That doesn’t appear here.
- This answer matches our basic structure, but not our flaw! This is actually an incorrect reversal – we are told that things which improve circulation (sufficient condition) also improve your alertness (necessary condition). The author mistakenly extrapolates this to mean that garlic (which improves alertness) also improves circulation.
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