QUESTION TEXT: According to the official results of last…
QUESTION TYPE: Flawed Reasoning
CONCLUSION: The results were rigged.
REASONING: The results said 80% of the population voted for the proposal. But everyone I know voted against it.
ANALYSIS: This is classic sample bias. Your friends are not representative of the population in general. They all have someone in common: they know you.
If you’re a student, you probably mostly know young people. If you’re left-wing or right-wing, then you probably hang out with people who are more left-wing or right-wing than average.
In fact, the fact that you’re reading this book tells me that you’re young, intelligent, motivated, ambitious. You’re probably also uncertain about your near future and stressed out. All because I know you’re taking the LSAT. Magic, right?
To get a true sense of the popularity of an idea, you must use a random sample.
___________
- CORRECT. A person’s friends are not a random, representative sample.
- This is code for circular reasoning. This argument isn’t circular. The author does use evidence (‘their friends voted against the proposal’). The problem is merely that their evidence sucks.
- This is code for an ad hominem attack. The author didn’t attack the character of the electoral officials who counted the votes.
- The author never says how people should have voted.
- The author doesn’t say whether other people think the vote was rigged.
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