QUESTION TEXT: In the previous two years, significantly more…
QUESTION TYPE: Flawed Reasoning
CONCLUSION: More rain will probably fall in September than July in Browning.
REASONING: More rain has fallen in September than July for the past two years in Browning.
ANALYSIS: This argument is pretty simple: it happened before, so it will probably happen again. It bases this on only the past two years, which is not a lot. We don’t know if the last two years happened to have exceptionally rainy Septembers or dry Julys. The correct answer will probably attack this weakness.
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- This argument doesn’t do this.
Example of flaw: Everyone goes to Joe’s Market because it is the most popular store. - CORRECT. See analysis above. 2 years is not a lot of time to base this argument on.
- The argument doesn’t emphasize this possibility at all. Even if the last 2 years were especially rainy, the argument is comparing times within those years. A year being more rainy than usual wouldn’t typically change which months are rainiest.
- The argument doesn’t do this.
Example of flaw: When Taylor Swift and Drake go on tour, they often perform in the same cities. They must be working together to choose which cities to visit. - There is no evidence that the argument does this.
Example of flaw: A guy at the store told me it always rains on Tuesdays. So it will probably rain tomorrow, because today is Monday.
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