QUESTION TYPE: Flawed Reasoning
CONCLUSION: The planning board is wrong in its recent estimate that four businesses are leaving the region each week.
REASONING: There are no more than 1,000 businesses in the region. We know that almost no new businesses have arrived over the past ten years. But if this estimate were correct then all of the businesses would have left long ago.
ANALYSIS: The estimate is recent. The businessman is ignoring the possibility that the rate of businesses leaving has increased recently.
- The businessman did mention that almost no new businesses have moved into the region.
- The rate of change is relevant to the total number of businesses because it affects that total. But the businessman didn’t say whether the planning board had an estimate for the total or not.
- There is no mention of what the planning board wants or what serves its interest.
- CORRECT. The planning board is only talking about the current rate of businesses leaving. The businessman assumes they meant that businesses left constantly at that rate for the past ten years.
- The businessman didn’t do that; he isn’t precise himself. He says: “never more than about 1,000 businesses.”
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